Outburst hazard of little-studied lakes assessment at the Mongun-Taiga massif

There is a reduction in the area of glaciation of mountain massifs as a result of climate warming, which leads to the formation of lake-glacial complexes in areas of glacial degradation. These complexes are dynamic systems that are rapidly changing over time. Therefore, they are unstable and have an outburst potential. Outbursts of moraine and periglacial lakes are dangerous hydrological phenomena. As a result of outbursts, catastrophic floods and mudflows can form, causing serious damage to the infrastructure of settlements located downstream and often lead to human casualties. Therefore, the study of outburst-hazardous lakes is necessary and is an important applied problem associated with forecasting natural hazards. In this work, the assessment of the outburst hazard of little-studied moraine and periglacial lakes at the Mongun-Taiga mountain massif (Tyva Republic, Russian Federation) was carried out using the scoring method, supplemented by taking into account regional characteristics, and data from the remote sensing of the Earth. The performed assessment, according to satellite images, showed that most of the massif ’s lakes have a high outburst hazard. Based on the results of the assessment, a group of lakes was selected located in the right tributary upstream of the river “Tolaity” for the purpose of a more detailed field survey (hydrological and geophysical studies were carried out). Field work carried out on the selected group of lakes allowed the authors to correct the performed assessment. In the article, the applicability of the method based on comparing field data and data obtained from satellite images was estimated.This work was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grant no. 19-05-00535 A “Natural disasters and transformation of landscapes in southeastern Altai and northwestern Mongolia during the period from the maximum glaciation”)