Who Get Divorced More Often? Education and Marital (In)Stability In Croatia

U radu istražujemo vezu između obrazovanja i razvoda braka u Hrvatskoj. Razvode li se češće više ili niže obrazovani? Postoje li razlike među spolovima? Mijenja li se obrazovni gradijent u riziku za razvod s vremenom (među bračnim kohortama)? Odgovore tražimo kori-steći se pojedinačnim (mikro) podatcima iz vitalne statistike o sklopljenim i razvedenim brako-vima. Njih smo povezali tako da sve parove koji su u prvi brak ušli između 1989. i 2014. godine možemo pratiti od vjenčanja do razvoda ili do prekida u opažanju. Rezultati iz analize povijesti događaja pokazuju da u prosjeku, među svim bračnim kohortama, obrazovanje na rizik za raz-vod utječe negativno za muškarce i pozitivno za žene. Što se tiče promjena u vremenu, za oba spola pronalazimo naznake da se u sve većoj mjeri razvode oni (naj)niže obrazovani. To ih može dovesti u još nepovoljniji položaj, zato što razvod braka obično izaziva negativne poslje-dice, pa u budućim istraživanjima valja provjeriti kakve implikacije naši empirijski nalazi imaju za društvenu nejednakost u Hrvatskoj.The paper analyzes the connection between education and divorce in Croatia. Who gets divorced more often, people with more or less education? Are there gender differences? Is the educational gradient in the risk of divorce changing with time (across marriage cohorts)? The paper searches for answers by using individual (micro) data from the vital statistics of marriag-es and divorces. The data were linked to allow observation of all the couples who married for the first time between 1989 until 2014 from the wedding until the divorce or until the termina-tion in observation. The results obtained by using the event history methods show that, on aver-age, across all marriage cohorts, education influences the risk of divorce for men negatively, and for women positively. Regarding changes in time, for both genders there are indications that those with low(est) education levels get divorced most frequently. This can lead them into an even more unfavourable position, since the divorce most frequently has negative conse-quences, so the future research should examine what implications our empirical results have on social inequality in Croatia