The Population of Croatia: Factors of Downward Trends

Primjenom metode demografske analize istraženi su višestoljetni čimbenici razvoja stanovništva u Hrvatskoj. Težište je na razdoblju od polovice 19. stoljeća do 2017. godine. Razmatrajući suvremene demografske trendove povijesno–demografskim pristupom, utvrđeno je razdoblje od kojega započinje demografsko i gospodarsko zaostajanje Hrvatske. Na temelju projekcija stanovništva do 2051. predočene su vrlo nepovoljne promjene u dobnoj strukturi stanovništva. Budući da projicirane demografske promjene nose sa sobom sve izraženije socijalne i gospodarske probleme, autor predlaže ključne mjere za demografsku revitalizaciju Hrvatske.The wars affecting Croatian lands from the 15th to the beginning of the 18th century have stopped demographic and economic development. The drastic population decline has impoverished Croatia significantly. Areas that suffered the greatest demographic and economic damage have remained economically underdeveloped, have maintained a sparse population density and long depopulation tendencies to the present date. These areas were not always poor, undeveloped and sparsely populated. Furthermore, a major factor affecting population development in Croatia is emigration which took the form of several distinctive waves of emigration beginning at the close of the 19th century up until the present day. The second part of the 20th century witnessed the centralised development model which led to the large–scale abandonment of rural settlements resulting in migration towards the few large cities in Croatia, but also abroad. Thus, the model of accelerated industrialisation suffered a collapse in just over a decade, at least from the demographic perspective. The 1991 census has demonstrated a natural population decrease, a considerable rate of emigration and a pronounced deterioration of the age structure of the population. Population projections for the year 2051 show a ve ry strong population decline. Anticipated demographic changes bring with them even more serious social and economic problems. There will be a compelling decline in the working–age population and so, despite other favourable conditions, the demographic structures will have a very negative effect on the GDP growth rate