Variable Reality of the Western Balkans in the Context of the European Integration

Budućnost Zapadnog Balkana u svjetlu evropske integracije umnogome počiva na nizu različitih faktora koji nijesu dominantno i jedino vezani za same države ovog regiona. Iako sam proces integracije u EU presudno zavisi od spremnosti i sposobnosti država kandidata i potencijalnih kandidata da sprovedu sve potrebne reforme, transponuju pravnu tekovinu i ostvare tzv. evropski standard u zakonodavstvu i u praksi, on se ne odvija u vakuumu. Prije svega treba imati na umu da će razvoj situacije unutar Evropske unije imati značajnog uticaja na brzinu, dubinu i kvalitet ulaska preostalih balkanskih zemalja u Uniju. Evropska unija odnosno njezine države članice su te koje određuju i postavljaju pravila, te i snose najveću odgovornost za politiku proširenja. Pored toga ne smiju se zanemariti ni uticaji trećih strana koji su sve primjetniji i akutniji u regionu. Usporavanje reformi, evropsko upravljanje krizama, pojačana ili slabija uloga trećih aktera, sve to će bitno odrediti kakav proces evrointegracije predstoji u narednim godinama te, u skladu s time, i način na koji će on uticati na stabilnost i budućnost samih zemalja proširenja. U tom smislu, Zapadni Balkan istovremeno živi u promjenljivim stvarnostima koje donose različite ishode i mogućnosti. Ovaj članak, pored pregleda stanja na Zapadnom Balkanu, stoga daje i moguće scenarije za budući period.This article deals with the future of the Western Balkans in the light of a number of different factors that are not solely and purely connected to the countries of the region. Although the very process of integration into the EU is predominantly dependant on the readiness and the ability of the candidate and potential candidate countries to implement all the needed reforms, transpose the acquis and achieve the so-called European standard in legislation and in practice, the process is not being conducted in a vacuum. First of all, we should bear in mind that the development of the situation within the EU shall have crucial impact on the speed, depth and quality of the entrance of the remaining Balkan countries into the Union. Apart from that, we cannot ignore the influences of the third actors, which have become more visible and acute in the region. The EU and its Member States are the ones that define and set up the rules, therefore they bear most of the responsibility for the Enlargement Policy. Laggardness in reforms, EU crisis management, a stronger or weaker role of the third actors – all this shall determine what kind of process of European integration we shall have in the next years, and in line with it, the manner in which the process shall influence the stability and future of the enlargement countries. In this context, the Western Balkans simultaneously lives in variable realities that bring different outcomes and possibilities. This article, apart from the presentation of the situation in the Western Balkans, offers possible scenarios for the future