Loss Estimation and seismic risk assessment in Eastern Turkey

Potresni rizik urbanog građevnog fonda u Turskoj dobiva na sve većoj važnosti zbog vrlo visoke potresne opasnosti kombinirane s vjerojatno oštećenim i gusto naseljenim građevnim fondom. U radu je prikazano istraživanje usmjereno na istočni dio Turske gdje su seizmički izvori kao i stupanj potresne opasnosti drugačiji. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da je potresna sigurnost civilnih građevina i u ovim dijelovima znatno ugrožena te da su očekivani gubici visoki i na razini "ne prihvatljivosti". U radu je dana i procjena ekonomskih gubitaka i smrtnosti, ako se ostvari neki od očekivanih potresnih scenarija.The seismic risk to urban building stock in Turkey is gaining in importance due to very high seismic hazard combined with its vulnerable and densely populated building stock. The research oriented on the eastern part of Turkey, where seismic sources and the level of seismic hazard are different, is presented in the paper. The results of the research show that the seismic safety of civil buildings is highly compromised even in this part of the country, and that expected losses are high and attain the level of "non-tolerable" losses. Economic losses and fatalities are also estimated in the paper, in case of realization of some of the expected scenarios