Development of bus transport system modeling in the City of Zagreb

Predmet istraživanja ovog rada jeste izučavanje dinamike razvitka sustava autobusnoga javnog gradskog putničkog transporta Grada Zagreba, a odnosi se na 16 godišnje vremensko razdoblje od 1995. do 2010. godine. Svrha ovoga rada i provedene analize izučavanih veličina koje se odnose na putničku transportnu potražnju i ponudu, kvalitetu transportne usluge kao i razinu životnog standarda korisnika usluga sustava javnog gradskog transporta sastoji se u stvaranju validne osnove za donošenje odluka vezanih za upravljanje prometnim procesom na strateškoj razini i planiranjem daljnjeg razvitka sustava javnoga gradskog putničkog transporta. Sukladno navedenoj svrsi postavljen je i cilj istraživanja koji se odnosi na ustanovljavanje zakonomjernosti prometnog procesa uz korištenje metoda: analize i sinteze, modeliranja i odgovarajućih matematičko statističkih metoda. Ciljevi ovog rada odnose se na ustanovljavanje statističke značajnosti prognostičkih trend modela izučavanih varijabli, povezanosti između dinamike razvitka putničke transportne potražnje i dinamike razvitka pojedinih varijabli prometne ponude kao i razine životnog standarda korisnika usluga javnoga gradskog putničkog transporta, te oblikovanju modela jednostruke i višestruke linearne regresije kako bi se utvrdila zakonomjernost prometnog procesa. Prema rezultatima ovog istraživanja može se zaključiti da tijekom promatranog razdoblja ne postoji usklađenost dinamike razvitka prometnih veličina vezanih za prometnu ponudu i kvalitetu transportne usluge autobusnog transportnog sustava s postojećom dinamikom razvitka putničke transportne potražnje.The research objective of this paper is the study of the development dynamics of the public urban bus passenger transport system of the City of Zagreb, referring to a 16-year period of time from 1995 to 2010. The purpose of this work and the carried out analysis of the studied values that refer to passenger transport demand and supply, quality of transport service as well as the level of the life standard of the public urban transport system users, serves to create a valid basis for decision-making relating to the traffic process management at a strategic level and planning of further development of the urban passenger transport system. In accordance with the mentioned purpose the research objective has been set and it refers to the establishing of legality of the transport process using the methods of analysis and synthesis, modelling, and adequate mathematical and statistical methods. The objectives of this paper refer to establishing the statistical significance of prognostic trend models of the studied variables, connection between the development dynamics of the passenger transport demand and the development dynamics of individual traffic supply variables as well as the level of life standard of the urban passenger transport users, and the design of the model of single and multiple linear regression in order to determine the legality of the transport process. According to the results of this research it may be concluded that during the observed period there is no harmonisation of the development dynamics of the traffic values related to the transport supply and the quality of the transport service of the bus transport system with the existing development dynamics of the passenger transport demand