DETERMINANTS OF POPULATION REPRODUCTION IN CROATIA

Predmet ovog rada predstavlja istraživanje reprodukcijskih odrednica razvoja stanovništva Hrvatske u drugoj polovici 20. stoljeća. Prve dvije grupe čine demografske odrednice i to ukupan broj žena u fertilnoj dobi (15-49 godina) i struktura prema dobi fertilnog ženskog stanovništva, dok treću grupu čine društvene odrednice reprodukcije sadrane u specifičnim stopama fertiliteta prema dobi. U međupopisnom razdoblju 1953.-1971. godine, generacijska depopulacija enskog stanovništva uslijedila je kako pod utjecajem promjena u dobnoj strukturi ženskog fertilnog stanovništva, tako i djelovanjem smanjivanja specifičnih stopa fertiliteta u dobi najveće fiziološke plodnosti (20-29 godina). U međupopisnom razdoblju 1981.-2001., sve tri grupe navedenih odrednica djelovale su na smanjivanje ukupnog broja stanovnika, odnosno opsega njegove reprodukcije.In this paper we have analysed essential determinants of population reproduction in Croatia in the second half of 20th century. Both natality and mortality tended to decline, but the natality decline, after a shorter period of baby-boom, was more rapid, while the mortality declined more rapidly in the beginning and stagnated in the second part of the period, obviusly under the impact of average ageing. The crude birth rate especially fell in 1990th as a consequence of troubled times and the loss of younger people during the independence war. The natural increase of population declined drastically, from 12,5 per thousand in 1950, to 0,7 per thousand in 1990, and to negative rates in the period 1991-2001, with –2,0 per thousand in 2001. The same tendencies are recorded in the total fertility rate and the gross and net reproduction rates, which started to fall earlier and are presently much below replacement level. The factors behind these tendencies are then analysed: the number of women in the fertile age in total population, as well as changes in the age structure of fertile women as a demographic factor, and the declien in age specific fertility rates, as a social factor. All these factors were negative from the standpoint of population reproduction and in recent years resulted in the decline in the total number of population in Croatia