Development of tram transport system modeling in the City of Zagreb

Radom je provedeno istraživanje odnosa putničke transportne potražnje i veličina koje se odnose na tehnički, tehnološki i organizacijski podsustav tramvajskoga prometnog sustava, kao dominatnog podsustava u okviru javnoga gradskoga putničkog prijevoza Grada Zagreba. Nakon prikupljanja i matematičko statističke obrade podataka izučavanih veličina unutar vremenskoga razdoblja od 1995. do 2010. istražuje se zakonomjernost glede njihova razvitka i međusobne povezanosti. Svrha rada ogleda se u oblikovanju releventne stručno znanstvene osnove za donošenje odluka vezanih za upravljanje prometnim procesom na strateškoj razini i planiranje daljnjeg razvitka tramvajskoga prometnog sustava. S obzirom na postavljeni cilj istraživanja modeliranja procesa, u radu su korištene metode analize i sinteze, oblikovani su regresijski i matematički prognostički modeli izučavanih veličina. Istraživanjem je za deset veličina ustanovljen statistički značajan matematički prognostički trend model kao i regresijski model, pri tome se izdvajaju negativni trendovi bitnih veličina vezanih za kvalitetu transportne usluge i organizacijski podsustav uz istodobno smanjenje putničke potražnje u tramvajskom prometnom sustavu.The work was carried out through the research relationships on passengers transport demand and its size is related to a technical, technological and organizational subsystem in the tram transport system, as well as dominant subsystems within the public urban passenger transportation in Zagreb. After the collection of statistical and mathematical data processing, various studies within the time period since 1995 to 2010, that investigate the relationship do not respect their growth and interconnectivity. The purpose of this project is reflected into the design relevant professional scientific basis for making decisions regarding the management of this transport processes at the strategic level of planning and further development of tram transport system. The aim of the research process modelling given in the stated study within used methods of analysis and synthesis is designed by regression and predictive mathematical models studied size. The study size was established for ten statistically significant trend forecasting mathematical model and the regression model, thereby to distinguish the important size of the negative trends related to the quality of transport services and organizational subsystem while reducing travel demand in a tram transport system