APPLICATION OF MODEL-BASED APPROACH TO THE CALCULATION OF THE LEADING COMPOSITE INDICATOR: THE CASE OF CROLEI INDEX

Cilj članka je unaprijediti postojeću metodologiju CROLEI indeksa te izračunati novi i unaprijeđeni CROLEI indeks čija svrha je naviještanje točaka zaokreta poslovnog ciklusa i kretanja realne ekonomske aktivnosti u Republici Hrvatskoj. Metodološka unaprjeđenja se odnose na metodu izbora komponenti indeksa te na određivanje točaka zaokreta poslovnog ciklusa. Točke zaokreta poslovnog ciklusa se određuju korištenjem filtrirane serije vjerojatnosti ulaska u recesiju izračunate primjenom modela Markovljevih lanaca, dok se izbor komponenti indeksa provodi testovima značajnosti koeficijenta korelacije te ocjenom logit modela. Novi CROLEI indeks se sastoji od osam komponenti te predstavlja unaprjeđenje u odnosu na postojeći indeks, kako u smislu modernije metodologije, tako i u smislu pravovremenog naviještanja točaka zaokreta poslovnog ciklusa.The aim of this paper is to improve the existing methodology of the construction of CROLEI index and to calculate new and improved CROLEI index. The purpose of CROLEI index is to signal the turning points in the business cycle in the Republic of Croatia and to provide information about future condition of the real economic activity. The methodological improvements correspond both to the selection of index components and to determination of past business cycle turning points. Business cycle turning points are determined using the filtered probabilities of entering into recession obtained by estimating the Markov switching model, while the selection of index components is based on correlation coefficients significance tests and logit model estimates. New CROLEI index is composed of eight series, and in terms of applied methodology and its ability to signal business cycle turning points it represents an improvement when compared to the old version of the index