Mortality Transition: The Population of Desne in the Neretva Valley (1870-1880)

Prosječna godišnja stopa prirodnog prirasta od 18,17‰, uz još uvijek visok natalitet, pokazuje obilježja centralne etape tranzicijskog procesa. Tranzicija mortaliteta je vrlo velika, prosječna godišnja stopa smrtnosti manja je od 17‰. Bitno smanjena smrtnost dojenčadi i povećana ženidbena dob također ukazuju na tranzicijske efekte. U Donjoj Neretvi, “udar” na smanjenje smrtnosti prvo je započeo na dječjem, a tek potom na staračkom kontingentu. U Desnima se uočava i visoka smrtnost fertilnog kontingenta, vjerojatno zbog malarije, tuberkuloze i natprosječnog broja smrti izazvanih nesretnim slučajevima. Ritmovi začeća lociraju “zastoj” u vrijeme jesenskih radova i izrazitu plodnost u proljeće i rano ljeto. Kod sklapanja brakova jesenski i zimski maksimum su ravnopravni. Nizak stupanj izvanbračnosti kazuje da su se u Desnima uredno poštivale crkvene zabrane o predbračnom začeću.An annual average rate of the natural population growth in the Desne parish (in the Neretva valley) of 18.17‰ with a fairly high natality rate may be said to characterise the central phase of the transitional process. Mortality transition is very high, mean annual mortality rate being smaller than 17‰. Other variables also point to the transitional effects, such as a major decline in infant mortality and higher marriage age. Life expectancy is somewhat higher, indicating that in Donja Neretva (Lower Neretva) in contrast to other Croatian regions, the ‘blow’ upon the decline in mortality first affected the infant and then the elderly contingent. Desne experienced high mortality of the fertile contingent, due most likely to malaria, tuberculosis and an above-average number of accidental deaths (drowning, falls, burns—more than 5% of the overall deaths). Conception pattern reveals a gap during the autumn harvest and accentuated fertility in spring and summer. In terms of marriage, the autumn and winter peaks share the same height. A low level of extramarital births shows that the inhabitants of Desne were strict in their observance of the church norms governing premarital sexual behaviour. There is no evidence of consanguineous marriages