Euroasia, Energy Cooperation or Conflict? 3rd Part: Competiti(Impositi) on Of Projects for Oil and Gas Supply in the Light of Geopolitics

Izašli smo iz 20. stoljeća s prevladavajućim uvjerenjem o globalnoj premoći neoliberalne ekonomske doktrine. U taj kategorijalni sustav spada i svemoć otvorenog tržišta a koje se odnosi i na energente. Poglavito naftu i plin. Na samom početku 21. stoljeća činilo se da dostupnost na tržištima nabave nije upitna. Europa ali i SAD su, s dosta entuzijazma, očekivale pouzdanu opskrbu kako iz Rusije, tako i iz Kaspijske regije. Nije trebalo dugo čekati da se ekonomski oporavljena Rusija prestane zadovoljavati dosadašnjom pozicijom u opskrbi. Prepoznajući uvoznu energetsku ovisnost zapada, posebno EU, vješto koristeći svoje prednosti, počinje nametati i uvjete. Uz to, shvaćajući da EU i SAD u Kaspijskoj regiji vide protutežu opskrbe iz Rusije, iza 2005. preuzima inicijativu. S jedne strane nudi nove opskrbne projekte za Europu, a s druge poduzima niz koraka da preko svojih transportnih sustava osigura tranzit nafte i plina iz Kaspijske regije. Kontrolirajući energetske tokove, kontrolira i sve druge uvjete. U pogodnom času zakupljuje višak proizvodnje u zemljama regije, a potom kreće u istovrsni proces u nekim sjevernoafričkim zemljama uz namjere stvaranja plinskog kartela. Manje zemlje, poput Hrvatske, vide svoju šansu u tranzitu nafte i plina s istoka na zapad, očekujući korist u povećanoj pouzdanosti opskrbe kao i u jačanju geopolitičke pozicije. Međutim, prijeti realna opasnost da se u nesnalaženju, poglavito u lošim geopolitičkim procjenama, a koje u ovom slučaju zahtijevaju izvrsno poznavanje tehnoekonomske pozadine svakog projekta odnosno rubnih uvjeta izvedivosti projekata, izgubi jedan od najvažnijih i definitivno nenadoknadivih resursa – vrijeme.We have ended the 20th century with the prevailing belief that neoliberal doctrine is the best solution. Omnipotence of open market and its mechanisms was part of this doctrine. It was considered that all the problems will be resolved if energy market, particularly oil and gas, is organized according to open market principles. At the very beginning of the 21st century it seemed that availability of supply is not questionable. Europe, but the United States as well, expected secure supply from Russia and the Caspian region. We needn’t wait for long to see that reinvigorated Russia is not satisfied anymore with its former position in energy supply. It became aware of energy dependency of the West, particularly the EU, and started taking advantage of its position as the main supplier by imposing its terms. In addition, after 2005, when it became clear that the EU and the United States tend to secure energy from the Caspian region in order to circumvent supply routes from Russia, the Russian companies took over initiative in this area. On one hand, Russia offered new supply projects for Europe, and on the other hand it took a series of activities for securing transit of Caspian oil and gas through Russian transit systems. Thus, it would control energy flows and consequently all other terms and conditions. At certain point, when market conditions were favourable, Russia acquired uncommitted overproduction in countries in the region, but then it started to pursue the same model in some North African countries with a plan to create a gas cartel. Smaller countries like Croatia see their opportunity in transit of oil and gas from the East to the West and a possibility to take advantage from providing higher security of supply, and thus to strengthen their geopolitical position. However, there is a real threat that, due to disorientation and poor assessment of geopolitical impacts, lack of in-depth knowledge about technical and economic background of each project and factors influencing its feasibility, the most important and irrecoverable resource is lost – the time