The Scylla and Charybdis of Social Security

U radu se raspravlja o vanjskim i unutrašnjim determinantama koje utječu na promjene u sustavu socijalne sigurnosti u Hrvatskoj. Pri opisu vanjskih determinanti polazi se, najprije, od identifikacije društvenih okolnosti koje su oblikovale zajedničke stupove poslijeratnih socijalnih država, a potom od identifikacije promjena koje su te stupove ozbiljno narušile: promjene u strukturi stanovništva, obiteljskim trendovima i obrascima zapošljavanja. Hrvatska je, osim zajedničkih tranzicijskih problema, obilježena još trima specifičnim pojavama: ratom i njegovim posljedicama, utjecajem stvaranja nacionalne države te specifičnim društvenim pojavama s osobinama odgođene demokracije i neuspješne europske integracije. Koordinate hrvatske socijalne situacije obilježene su nepovoljnim makroekonomskim okruženjem, velikom nezaposlenošću i nereguliranim radom, većom nejednakošću no u nizu drugih zemalja, problemima u preobrazbi mirovinskog sustava itd. U zaključnim razmatranjima polazi se od činjenice velikih, ali teško promjenljivih socijalnih izdataka, nužnosti veće koordinacije između reformi pojedinih socijalnih sektora, važnosti obnove društvenog konsenzusa, opasnostima privatizacije te smanjenju ovlasti države, ali i zadržavanju njezine temeljne društvene odgovornosti u procesu decentralizacije i procesu aktiviranja svih društvenih potencijala itd.This study discusses the external and internal determinants that influence changes in the system of social security in Croatia. In order to describe the external determinants, the social circumstances which have formed the common pillars of post-war welfare states must first be identified, and second, the changes which have seriously damaged these pillars: changes in the structure of the population, family trends and forms of employment. The impact of these changes is described paradigmatically through a diversion from the Keynesian national welfare state towards the Schumpeterian post-national work regime. These changes can also be associated with the data on the growth of poverty and inequality in many countries throughout the world. The analysis shows that in most European countries we can no longer speak of the significant impact of social damping, and that a range of liberal-residual solutions are linked with programmes to increase employability, but within a framework that maintains public systems, that is, universal social arrangements. The analysis of the Croatian situation begins by establishing that there is still no answer to the question on how this model has been developed in post-communist countries. Therefore, for these countries, the term Central European transition model has been suggested. Apart from common transitional problems, Croatia has also been marked by three specific phenomena: the war and its consequences, the effect of the creation of a national state, and the specific social development with the features of a postponed democracy and an unsuccessful process of European integration. The axes of the Croatian social situation have been marked by an unfavourable macroeconomic environment, large unemployment and non-regulated work, a greater inequality than in most other countries, problems in the transformation of the pension system, etc. The conclusion of the paper deals with the large social costs which are difficult to avoid, the necessity for better coordination between reforms and individual social sectors, the importance of renewing social consensus, the dangers of privatisation, and the decreased competence of the state which must still maintain its fundamental social responsibility in the process of decentralisation and in activating all social potentials, etc. Finally, the necessity of seeking a balance between workfare and social damping is particularly emphasised, as well as the understanding that a state which carries out a policy of social investment is the only guarantor for the achievement of harmonious economic and social developmen