THE USE OF THE METHOD OF SIMULATION IN THE CREDIT RISK APPRAISAL

Proces analize kreditnog rizika poslovnog sustava složen je i ovisno o metodi analize može biti više ili manje precizan i transparentan. Primjenom metode simulacije brojnih mogućih stanja poslovnog sustava u budućnosti, jednako kao i statističkom obradom dobijenih nizova, moguće je preciznije i transparentnije kvantifi cirati stvarnu mjeru rizika kreditiranja, tj. rizika nemogućnosti povrata duga. Autor u članku donosi elemente metode simulacije i važnost koeficijenata pokrića duga (DSCR i KDSCR) kao jedne od mjera izražavanja kreditnog rizika.The credit risk analyzing of a business system is a very compound process, which, depending on the methods applied, could be more or less accurate. By applying the method of simulation of numerous possible situations in which the observed business system could fi nd itself in the future, and by processing the results of the carried out simulations statistically, it is possible to get more accurate and more transparent quantification of the actual credit risk degree, i.e. credit repay risk. The autor of this article presents the elements of the simulation method and the significance of the debt service cover ratio and cumulative debt service cover ratio (DSCR and CDSCR) as the measures of credit ris