Combining business model innovation and model-based analysis to tackle the deep uncertainty of societal transitions : a case study on industrial electrification and power grid management

Creating new business models is crucial for the implementation of clean technologies for industrial decarbonization. With incomplete knowledge of market processes and uncertain conditions, assessing the prospects of a technology-based business model is challenging. This study combines business model innovation, system dynamics, and exploratory model analysis to identify new business opportunities in a context of sociotechnical transition and assess their prospects through simulation experiments. This combination of methods is applied to the case of a potential business model for Distribution System Operators aiming at ensuring the stability of the electrical grid by centralizing the management of flexible loads in industrial companies. A system dynamics model was set up to simulate the diffusion of flexible electrification technologies. Through scenario definition and sensitivity analysis, the influence of internal and external factors on diffusion was assessed. Results highlight the central role of energy costs and customer perception. The chosen combination of methods allowed the formulation of concrete recommendations for coordinated action, explicitly accounting for the various sources of uncertainty. We suggest testing this approach in further business model innovation contexts