Mapping the Future: Scenario Planning for the Post-Pandemic Library

How do we create an atlas to map libraries\u27 futures? In times of turmoil, when people don\u27t even agree on what\u27s happening around them, how can we bring key decisionmakers onto the same page? When tomorrow is uncertain and future conditions won\u27t be like today\u27s, foresight tools like scenario planning can help libraries & their communities to make wise choices in the face of the unknown. This paper offers a scenario planning case study from the heart of the COVID-19 pandemic, applying the Oxford Scenario Planning Approach. This method encourages decisionmakers to reframe their situation, revealing strategic blindspots which may conceal threats or opportunities. Working towards a predefined purpose that anchors the future scenarios, planners develop visions of the world to come which challenge assumptions and encourage reperception. This is not about prediction or preference: the process doesn\u27t focus on how likely scenarios are to occur, or whether they are desirable for the decisionmaker. Instead, scenarios offer plausible accounts of time yet to come; these unique future vantage points yield information otherwise obscured in the here and now. In our case study, a small city library in the northeastern United States recognised that a traditional planning process would not suit the challenges faced in 2021, and chose to use scenarios to explore plausible futures for their organization. Over a period of months, a core planning group created relationship and value maps for the entire library service, brought external stakeholders into the strategic conversation, and created three scenarios to challenge assumptions about the futures faced by their library and community. Set in 2040, these scenarios went beyond operational considerations of immediate post-COVID emergence to reflect on how evolving political, social, and economic uncertainties might transform the library\u27s business environment. Planners, the library board, and other stakeholders contemplated futures in which the library might serve as a public informatics commission supporting equity in a highly digitalised world; as a cultural venue deeply integrated into local institutions of higher education; or as a force for social cohesion in a highly fragmented society, where the very notion of a single publicly-funded library service for the community was no longer viable. These scenarios provided fresh perspectives from which to reexamine the present and uncover new options which would be robust, resilient, and flexible through the ongoing uncertainties of 2021 and beyond. This paper demonstrates a strategic planning approach which complements data-driven or evidence-based decisionmaking by addressing precisely those situations in which projections and predictions will not serve, owing to future uncertainty: you can\u27t gather data from events which haven\u27t happened yet . It expands discussion of the new normal by recognising the extent to which a library\u27s context is beyond that library\u27s control, and may be imperfectly perceived in the present. It then offers techniques to build stability and make wise choices even during unprecedented crises. Above all, it is intended to serve as a practical example and guide for library leaders and all those who wish to help libraries judiciously navigate through turbulent times