Who are the green voters in Croatia? : analysis of sociodemographic, political and value determinants of favoring green politics

Svrha diplomskog rada je učiniti pregled teorijskih djela i empirijskih istraživanja posvećenim zelenim političkim strankama i njihovim biračima te ispitati koje su sociodemografske odrednice, političke preferencije i sklonost postmaterijalističkim vrijednosti zelenih birača u Hrvatskoj. Glavna obilježja zelenih stranaka ukratko se mogu opisati kroz davanje prioriteta ekološkim problemima te želja za rješavanjem nejednakosti u društvu kroz borbu protiv spolne, seksualne i nacionalne diskriminacije te širenje socijalnih usluga države. Ključni čimbenici koji utječu na politički uspjeh zelenih političkih opcija su zastupljenost ekoloških pitanja u javnoj sferi, ekonomsko stanje države, institucionalni okviri provođenja izbora. Opisane su i regionalne razlike u Europi u uspjehu zelenih stranka te utjecaj postsocijalističkog nasljeđa i problema nastali nakon tranzicije zemalja u srednjoj i istočnoj Europi. Zelene stranke u Hrvatskoj tek nedavno ostvaruju veći politički uspjeh i reprezentaciju u Saboru, što je znatno otežalo provedbu analize na hrvatskim zelenim biračima. Provedene analize su pokazale da su ekološkim stavovima sklonije visokoobrazovane žene sklone lijevoj političkoj orijentaciji koje visoko vrednuju demokraciju i imaju blagu sklonost postmaterijalističkim vrijednostima. Također, političke preferencije su se pokazale znatno snažnijim prediktorom ekološke orijentacije i sklonosti zelenoj opciji nego sociodemografski čimbenici. Iako analize provedene na potencijalnim glasačima stranke Možemo!, zbog problema nedostatka podataka, nisu prigodne za generalizacije zbog malog broja uključenih prediktora i slabe moći objašnjavanja, pristupi u radu predstavljaju dobru osnovu za buduća istraživanja i ukazuju na područja koja je potrebno dodatno istražiti.The purpose of this master thesis is to review theoretical papers and empirical research dedicated to green political parties and their voters, but also to test what are the socio-demographic determinants, political preferences and values orientation of green voters in Croatia. The main characteristics of green parties can be briefly described as defining environmental problems as main political priority and the desire to address inequalities in society through addressing gender, sexual and national discrimination and the expansion of the welfare state. The key identified factors that influence political success of green parties is salience of environmental issues in the public sphere, the economic situation of the state and election rules. Regional differences in Central and Eastern Europe regarding the success of green parties are explained through post-socialist heritage and the emergence of economic and social problems in the transitional period. Green political parties in Croatia have only recently acquired greater political success and representation in Croatian Parliament, which has significantly hampered the possibilities of researching green voters in Croatia. Statistical analysis showed that highly educated women with leftist political orientations who also highly valuable democracy and have a slight inclination to post-materialist values are keener on environmental attitudes. Additionally, it was noticed that political factors explained much more variance than did sociodemographic variables. Although statistical analysis of potential green voters were unsuitable for generalizations, because due to lack of data only small number of predictors were included in the models and the models had weak explanatory power, paper represents a good starting point for future research and identifies areas that require further research