Spatially distributed impacts of climate change and groundwater demand on the water resources in a wadi system

Understanding current and possible future alterations of water resources under climate change and increased water demand allows for better water and environmental management decisions in arid regions. This study aims at analyzing the impact of groundwater demand and climate change on groundwater sustainability and hydrologic regime alterations in a wadi system in central Iran. A hydrologic model is used to assess streamflow and groundwater recharge of the Halilrood Basin on a daily time step under five different scenarios over the baseline period (1979–2009) and for two future scenario periods (near future: 2030–2059 and far future: 2070–2099). The Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) with a set of 32 parameters are used in conjunction with the Range of Variability Approach (RVA) to evaluate hydrologic regime change in the river. The results show that groundwater recharge is expected to decrease and is not able to fulfill the increasing water demand in the far future scenario. The Halilrood River will undergo low and moderate streamflow alteration under both stressors during the near future as RVA alteration is classified as “high” for only three indicators, whereas stronger alteration is expected in the far future, with 11 indicators in the high range. Absolute changes in hydrologic indicators are stronger when both climate change and groundwater demand are considered in the far future simulations, since 27 indicators show significant changes, and the RVA shows high and moderate levels of changes for 18 indicators. Considering the evaluated RVA changes, future impacts on the freshwater ecosystems in the Halilrood Basin will be severe. The developed approach can be transferred to other wadi regions for a spatially distributed assessment of water resources sustainability.