Bayesian inference offers an optimal means of processing environmental information and so an advantage in natural selection. We consider the apparent, recent trend in increasing dysfunctional disagreement in, for example, political debate. This is puzzling because Bayesian inference benefits from powerful convergence theorems, precluding dysfunctional disagreement. Information overload is a plausible factor limiting the applicability of full Bayesian inference, but what is the link with dysfunctional disagreement? Individuals striving to be Bayesian-rational, but challenged by information overload, might simplify by using Bayesian networks or the separation of questions into knowledge partitions, the latter formalized with quantum probabili...
We conducted six treatments of a standard moral hazard experiment with hidden action. All treatments...
Raw data are typically required to be processed to be ready for statistical analyses, and processing...
open1noThis article describes the status of development economics within the broader field of the ec...
Bayesian inference offers an optimal means of processing environmental information and so an advanta...
Conference paper presented at Recent Advances in Info-Metrics, Washington, DC, 2014. Under review fo...
We examine the role of trustworthiness and trust in statistical inference, arguing that it is the ex...
Three arguments against universally regular probabilities have been posed based on examples where, i...
Searching for information is critical in many situations. In medicine, for instance, careful choice ...
This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DO...
Humans and other animals have an evolved ability to detect discrete magnitudes (numerosities) in th...
This paper presents a set of guidelines, imported from the field of forecasting, that can help socia...
Searching for information is critical in many situations. In medicine, for instance, careful choice ...
The aim of this paper is to critically build on Justin Biddle and Anna Leuschner’s characterization ...
One approach to characterizing the elusive notion of emergence is to define that a property is emerg...
Much of the social and medical sciences depend on randomised control trials. But while this may be c...
We conducted six treatments of a standard moral hazard experiment with hidden action. All treatments...
Raw data are typically required to be processed to be ready for statistical analyses, and processing...
open1noThis article describes the status of development economics within the broader field of the ec...
Bayesian inference offers an optimal means of processing environmental information and so an advanta...
Conference paper presented at Recent Advances in Info-Metrics, Washington, DC, 2014. Under review fo...
We examine the role of trustworthiness and trust in statistical inference, arguing that it is the ex...
Three arguments against universally regular probabilities have been posed based on examples where, i...
Searching for information is critical in many situations. In medicine, for instance, careful choice ...
This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DO...
Humans and other animals have an evolved ability to detect discrete magnitudes (numerosities) in th...
This paper presents a set of guidelines, imported from the field of forecasting, that can help socia...
Searching for information is critical in many situations. In medicine, for instance, careful choice ...
The aim of this paper is to critically build on Justin Biddle and Anna Leuschner’s characterization ...
One approach to characterizing the elusive notion of emergence is to define that a property is emerg...
Much of the social and medical sciences depend on randomised control trials. But while this may be c...
We conducted six treatments of a standard moral hazard experiment with hidden action. All treatments...
Raw data are typically required to be processed to be ready for statistical analyses, and processing...
open1noThis article describes the status of development economics within the broader field of the ec...