One way or another : an optimal matching analysis of students’ educational trajectories throughout upper- and post-secondary education and the impact of tracking and engagement

Understanding social disparities in educational attainment requires understanding students’ decision-making throughout their educational career. Therefore, we studied students' pathways throughout upper-secondary and higher education, used optimal matching analysis to identify common pathways, and studied the role of SES therein. Additionally, we researched the role of engagement for overcoming socioeconomic disadvantages in students’ educational decision making. Using data from 965 Flemish students, optimal matching analyses identified seven distinct pathways throughout upper-secondary and higher education. While pathways largely followed the tracked structure of the Flemish educational system, there was considerable within-track heterogeneity. Multinomial regression analyses demonstrated that even among the relatively privileged academic track students, socioeconomic background affected program choice and long-term academic success. Less engaged students were less likely to follow university pathways, which highlights the role of students’ efforts. Our findings challenge the efficiency of the academic track, as it seemingly fails to prepare students for higher education