African swine fever virus circulation between Tanzania and neighboring countries : a systematic review and meta-analysis

For over 100 years after the description of the first case of African swine fever (ASF) in Kenya, ASF virus (ASFV) cross-border spread in eastern and southern Africa has not been fully investigated. In this manuscript, we reviewed systematically the available literature on molecular epidemiology of ASF in Tanzania and its eight neighboring countries in order to establish the transmission dynamics of ASFV between these countries. Data were retrieved from World Animal Health Information System (WAHIS), Google Scholar, PubMed, Scopus, and CrossRef databases, using the recommendations of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines and reviewed to document ASF outbreaks and ASFV genotypes distribution. Using phylogeographic approach applied to ASFV p72 sequence dataset, the evolutionary history and the dispersal pattern of the ASFV strains were assessed. From 2005 to 2019, a total of 1588 ASF outbreaks affecting 341,742 cases that led to 302,739 domestic pig deaths were reported. The case fatality rates (CFR) varied from 15.41% to 98.95% with an overall CFR of 88.58%. Fifteen different p72 ASFV genotypes were reported and the time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) for ASFV strains dated back to 1652.233 (1626.473, 1667.735) with an evolutionary rate of 4.805 x 10(-5) (2.5857 x 10(-5), 9.7789 x 10(-5)). Phylogeographic dispersal analysis revealed several transboundary spread events of ASFV strains between these countries. These results suggest persistent circulation of ASFV in these countries and advocate for more research to improve our understanding of the transmission dynamics of the virus and for a regional approach to mitigate the spread of ASFV