An approximate reliability evaluation method for improving transportation network performance

Considering the importance of maintaining network performance at desired levels under uncertainty, network reliability, as a new approach to assessing the performance of degradable urban transportation networks, has become increasingly developed in two recent decades. In this paper, a method for optimizing resource allocation to meet the required levels of transportation network reliability is proposed. The worked out method consists of two stages: at stage one, a method for computing the reliability of network connectivity based on the reliability of computing arc performance with an assumption that capacities are random variables for each arc is presented. These random variables are assumed to be conformed to especial probability density functions which can be modified through investing to improve the performance reliability of the arcs. At stage two, a mixed integer nonlinear programming model is developed to optimize resource allocation in the network. Numerical results are also provided in a simple network to demonstrate the capability of the employed method. First published online: 27 Oct 201