Back out or hang on? An event history analysis of withdrawal from doctoral education in Germany

Despite the benefits of a PhD for degree-holders as well for society as a whole, doctoral student attrition is a common phenomenon. Unfortunately, the empirical literature on dropout from doctoral education is scant, especially for non-US countries—an omission we address in the current study. Building on Tinto’s model of student attrition and rational choice theory, the study empirically assesses the association of different individual, institutional, and external factors with the propensity to leave doctoral studies. Unlike most studies in the field, it draws on longitudinal data using event history modelling, observing doctoral students in multiple disciplines and a wide range of universities. The key results can be summarized as follows: In Germany, women are more likely to dropout than men. The probability of dropping out strongly depends on the discipline and the availability of a scholarship. A close contact with the supervisor and exchange with other PhDs are associated with a lower dropout probability. Moreover, having children increases dropout rates. The study findings provide first empirical guidance for interventions that can possibly help reducing dropout