Cold Turkey: Will the Recent Freeze in Turkish NATO Relations Spiral into a Bigger Problem?

Situated in a strategic location bridging the gap between Europe and Asia, Turkey has been a valuable member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) for decades. However, recent events have inflamed underlying tensions between Turkey and other NATO member states. This research seeks to determine if the escalation will cause Turkey to withdraw from the alliance within the next five years. In order to accomplish this, our team conducted both quantitative and qualitative research on current and historical economic, political, and cultural conditions driving the conflict. Following this research, our team synthesized the data using structured analytic techniques (SATs) to generate and compare multiple future scenarios, in order to assess the most likely endstate. SATs are objective models which help interpret data and information, filter out cognitive biases and limitations, and formulate a supported conclusion. These step-by-step analytic processes are commonly employed by corporate financial analysts and the U.S. intelligence community. In the synthesis of the data, the SATs indicated that Turkey’s continued membership in NATO is the most probable endstate; however, tensions between the member states will likely increase. Following our SATs, we conducted additional historical and cultural research to corroborate our conclusion by evaluating historical precedent for the dissolution of alliances. This conclusion has significant implications for how the U.S. conducts future relations with NATO members, in order to ensure Turkey’s continued membership as a strategic ally with key projection-of-power bases