Reduction Effect and Mechanism Analysis of Carbon Trading Policy on Carbon Emissions from Land Use

The reduction of carbon emissions from land use (CELU) is critical for China to achieve carbon neutrality, which may be greatly facilitated by carbon trading policies. Previous studies of the emission reduction effects of carbon trading policies focused mostly on the reduction of carbon source emissions, and there is a lack of research from the comprehensive perspective of carbon sources and carbon sinks. Understanding the effect of carbon trading policies on emission reduction from the perspective of CELU may help to improve the evaluation system of carbon trading policies, as well as provide important implications for the construction of China’s carbon trading market in the context of global carbon neutrality. Here, based on China’s current carbon-trading pilot areas, quasi-natural experiments were conducted by using the CELU data from 2005 to 2017, the synthetic control method (SCM) and the mediation effect model, aiming to empirically study the reduction effect and mechanism of carbon trading policies on CELU. The following main findings were obtained. (1) Carbon trading policies have had a significant reduction effect on the average CELU of the pilot areas by at least four million tons per year during the study period. (2) The carbon emission reduction effect of carbon trading policies has certain regional heterogeneity. (3) Carbon trading policies reduce CELU through the intermediate effect of energy structure, whose contribution rate reaches 30.433%. (4) Carbon trading policies did not achieve the Porter effect of technological progress during the study period, and technological progress has no significant intermediate effect on the reduction of CELU by carbon trading policy. Based on the above findings, the following policy implications can be proposed. Carbon trading and carbon offset should be studied from a comprehensive perspective of land use; regional heterogeneity should be considered when promoting the carbon emission trading system nationwide; and the energy structure should be optimized continuously