Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean
- Clairbaux, M.
- Cheung, W.
- Mathewson, P.
- Porter, W.
- Courbin, N.
- Fort, Jérôme
- Strøm, H.
- Moe, B.
- Fauchald, P.
- Descamps, S.
- Helgason, H.
- Bråthen, V.S.,
- Merkel, B.
- Anker‐nilssen, T.
- Bringsvor, I.S.,
- Chastel, O.
- Christensen‐dalsgaard, S.
- Danielsen, J.
- Daunt, F.
- Dehnhard, N.
- Erikstad, K.E.,
- Ezhov, A.
- Gavrilo, M.
- Krasnov, Y.
- Langset, M.
- Lorentsen, S.H.,
- Newell, M.
- Olsen, B.
- Reiertsen, T.K.,
- Systad, G.
- Thórarinsson, T.L.,
- Baran, M.
- Diamond, T.
- Fayet, A.L.,
- Fitzsimmons, M.G,
- Frederiksen, M.
- Gilchrist, H.G.,
- Guilford, T.
- Huffeldt, N.P.,
- Jessopp, M.
- Johansen, K.L.,
- Kouwenberg, A.L.,
- Linnebjerg, J.F,
- Mcfarlane Tranquilla, L.
- Mallory, M.
- Merkel, F.R.,
- Montevecchi, W.
- Mosbech, A.
- Petersen, A.
- Grémillet, David
- Anker- Nilssen, T
- Christensen-Dalsgaard, S
DOIAbstract
International audienceWe explored the implications of reaching the Paris Agreement Objective of limiting global warming to <2°C for the future winter distribution of the North Atlantic sea-bird community. We predicted and quantified current and future winter habitats of five North Atlantic Ocean seabird species (Alle alle, Fratercula arctica, Uria aalge, Uria lomvia and Rissa tridactyla) using tracking data for ~1500 individuals through resource selection functions based on mechanistic modeling of seabird energy requirements, and a dynamic bioclimate envelope model of seabird prey. Future winter distributions were predicted to shift with climate change, especially when global warming exceed 2°C under a “no mitigation” scenario, modify...
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