THE EFFECT OF ASEAN-CHINA FTA (ACFTA) GOODS TRADE AGREEMENT ON CONTRIBUTION OF EXPORT-IMPORTS TO ECONOMIC GROWTH OF ASEAN-6 COUNTRIES

This study aims to examine how the effect of the implementation of the ASEAN-CHINA Free Trade Area (ACFTA) agreement on economic growth in ASEAN-6 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, and Brunei Darussalam) during the period 1990-2019 using the OLS model. The results showed that the stages of EHP in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Philippines have no impact from the implementation of the Early Harvest Program (EHP). However, the countries of Singapore, and Brunei Darussalam have impact when implementing the EHP stage. In the implementation of the Normal Track stage in Indonesia, Philippines, and Brunei have the impact when the Normal Track stage is applied. However, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand have no impact with the implementation of the Normal Track stage. At the last stage, namely the Sensitive Track, it shows that Thailand and Malaysia have no impact when the Sensitive Track was applied, while the other 4 countries were actually enjoyed the effect when the Sensitive Track was implemented. ACFTA should not only focus on tariff barriers, but also on improving production efficiency, product competitiveness and structures of trade complementarities. Keywords: Economic growth, EHP, Normal Track, Sensitive Track, OLS