The dynamics of accidents in Metro Manila specifically concerning the public utility vehicle system

A computer simulation model of the accident rate behavior of the public and private transport system is constructed using system dynamics methodology. The important factors are the switching rate of people from public to private vehicles, boundary of the PUV units, level of enforcement, PUV level of driving aggressiveness, average waiting and travel times, and the number of private and public vehicles. The governing dynamic equations were programmed using the Stella (dynamic models and Simulation System software. The model reproduced the past history of the system adequately with respect to R2 the coefficient of determination which measures the degree to which two series covary- R2 for all the major level variables and rates produced a significant correlation with a value of 0.98 and 1.0. Indeed, parameter insensitivity is an important dimension of a model that should be compared with the real system to enhance confidence in the model. This model provides the behavior needed to investigate the impact of their policies (formed / unformed) with respect to the total rate of increase (or decrease) on the number of accidents. System boundaries were properly selected to represent the objectives, interacting variables are effectively connected, and the pertinent parameter coefficients were critically chosen