Inter-island passenger mode choice analysis: The case of Iloilo and Negros Occidental

The Western Visayas Region, which is composed of several islands in the central part of the Philippines, is becoming an integral contributor to the economy of the country. In two of its three main islands are the major economic centers of Iloilo City and Bacolod City. In order to connect the burgeoning cities and further promote economic development by improving accessibility within the region, the Panay-Guimaras-Negros (PGN) Bridge Project is being proposed. It is estimated to cost PHP 53 billion which is a significant proportion of the DPWH national budget. This study formulated multinomial, nested, and mixed logit choice models in order to determine the significant factors affecting inter-island passenger mode choice. Total travel time, total travel cost, and total travel cost squared influence choice. Moreover, further analysis has shown that gender, income class, and age provide heterogeneity in the marginal utility of travel time. Based on the estimated parameters of logit choice models, values of time from various traveler characteristics were derived in order to assess travel time savings. The mode shifting behavior of the travelers was investigated as well. Approximately 88% of all the sampled respondents will shift to other alternatives that will use the PGN project. From these results, demand was forecasted where co-benefits analysis was performed and the travel time, vehicle operating costs, and environmental air emissions savings were quantified. The savings brought about by the PGN project were contrasted against the estimated cost of the project which was adjusted for optimum bias uplift through the use of the reference class forecasting technique. Based on the results of the evaluation, the benefits of the proposed PGN project more than compensate for its estimated cost which supports the practicality of the megaproject. A project like the PGN proposal is vital in order to realize a well-integrated transportation system to meet the growing demand of a progressing economy