Business after the Marawi siege: An examination of post-conflict firm growth determinants, firm contributions and the moderating roles of institutions, type of entrepreneur and type of firm

The 2017 Marawi siege was a terror-related incident that led to an armed confrontation between an ISIS-supporting terror group and the Philippine military over the course of five months. The most intense confrontation took place in the central business district, home to 70% of the trading activity in the city. Based on a 2018 government report, the local retail and infrastructure sectors suffered Php 3.7 billion and Php 300 million in losses respectively. Initial interviews revealed that micro, retail firms in Marawi city have struggled to recover and grow after the siege. For this reason, the study examined the post-conflict growth of these firms using the Aldairany et al. (2018) framework on conflict and post-conflict entrepreneurship. This study used the sequential exploratory mixed methods research design. Qualitative data was collected from 24 owners of micro, retail firms in Marawi city and a survey instrument was developed and tested on a sample of 220 firm owners. Using panel data regression, 8 post-conflict firm growth models were produced. Findings of this study reveal that: 1) firm size, firm age, access to networks, personal traits, store location, family in business and electricity and internet connectivity have immediate direct effects on post-conflict firm growth, 2) firm age and store location have lagged direct effects, 3) business environment, policies & regulations and demand have immediate interaction effects on post-conflict firm growth, 4) business environment, policies & regulations and competition have lagged interaction effects, 5) type of entrepreneur and type of firm have both immediate and lagged interaction effects, 6) firm growth is highest among novice entrepreneurs, 7) firm growth is linked to contributions, which also link back to determinants, and 9) firms make various economic and social contributions that benefit the firm owner and the community at large. Recommendations for the national and local governments include introducing business-friendly policies, automating systems for government mandated fees, developing new markets in and outside of Marawi city, building strategically located market spaces, providing firms with targeted assistance based on their profile and needs, and encouraging social contributions. Firm owners are recommended to expand their connections to formal social networks and develop new firm capabilities. Several recommendations are made for future researchers