Modeling of the 1939 Erzincan (Ms~7.8) Earthquake: Observations on Anticipated Ground Motions and Damage Distribution

Located within a pull-apart basin at the conjunction of three active faults (North Anatolian, North East Anatolian and Ovacik Faults), Erzincan city center is one of the most hazardous regions in the world. Combination of the seismotectonic and geological settings of the region has resulted in series of significant seismic activities including the 27 December 1939 (Ms~7.8) and the 13 March 1992 (Mw=6.6) events. The former earthquake was in the preinstrumental era in the region with no available local seismograms. However, despite the sparse local network, the 1992 earthquake has been studied extensively. The objective of this study is to model the 1939 Erzincan earthquake using the regional seismic and geological parameters available mostly from the previous studies on the 1992 event. Despite several uncertainties involved, such an effort to quantitatively simulate the 1939 earthquake is promising, given the historical reports of extensive damage and fatalities in the area. The results are expressed in terms of anticipated spatial distribution of selected ground motion parameters and felt-intensity maps in the region. These shaking maps are obtained using local correlations between intensity and peak ground motion values. Comparisons of simulated motions against empirical prediction equations and the existing damage observations indicates a reasonable modeling of the 1939 earthqua