Medium-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting Based on MARS

The paper proposes use of multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) method to perform monthly electricity demand forecasting for medium-term. The model is developed based on specific example of Turkey; however is applicable to any other system. Performance of the proposed method is compared to that of multiple linear regression (MLR), generalized additive model (GAM), and artificial neural networks (ANN) methods. The validation process shows that the proposed model outperforms the other ones by test error and shows stable error performance