Modeling demand management strategies for evacuations

Evacuations are massive operations that create heavy travel demand on road networks some of which are experiencing major congestions even with regular traffic demand. Congestion in traffic networks during evacuations, can be eased either by supply or demand management actions. This study focuses on modeling demand management strategies of optimal departure time, optimal destination choice and optimal zone evacuation scheduling (also known as staggered evacuation) under a given fixed evacuation time assumption. The analytical models are developed for a system optimal dynamic traffic assignment problem, so that their characteristics can be studied to produce insights to be used for large-scale solution algorithms. While the first two strategies were represented in a linear programming (LP) model, evacuation zone scheduling problem inevitable included integers and resulted in a mixed integer LP (MILP) one. The dual of the LP produced an optimal assignment principle, and the nature of the MILP formulations revealed clues about more efficient heuristics. The discussed properties of the models are also supported via numerical results from a hypothetical network example