The influence of the context of conditional probability problems on probabilistic thinking: A case study with teacher candidates

This study investigates the influence of the context of conditional probability problems on probabilistic thinking processes of mathematics teacher candidates. Data were collected from four mathematics teacher candidates through semi-structured clinical interviews. Teacher candidates were expected to solve and explain three conditional probability problems, which were selected based on specific contexts. The findings revealed that, when the context is related to a social issue such as health or justice, that can be a hindrance to probabilistic thinking. In addition, while solving questions, teacher candidates focused on their beliefs regarding the social issue rather than using logical and numerical reasoning given in the questions. On the other hand, the findings highlighted the importance of the instruction on conditional probability, as the candidates represented a high-level of probabilistic thinking in the case of consecutive events that were frequently used in curricula