Selçuk alt-havzasında deniz suyu-yeraltı suyu ilişkisinin sayısal modellemesi, İzmir-Türkiye.

Seawater-fresh groundwater natural equilibrium conditions in the aquifers of the Selçuk sub-basin may be disturbed by the discharge occurred during the past 30 years in order to supply water for irrigation and domestic purpose usage. Two dimensional density dependent cross sectional saturated flow and solute transport simulations were carried out to determine whether seawater intrusion has occurred in the Selçuk sub-basin due to the imposed discharge or the determined salt-water in the western section of the aquifers represents natural interface equilibrium conditions. The numerical simulation model was calibrated using field measurements. The results of the simulations suggest that the seawater intrusion has occurred in the study area since the pumping activity increased in the region. Five scenarios were simulated for future predictions: (1) Present recharge and discharge conditions are maintained, (2) Discharge increases at a rate of the municipality need as a result of increasing population, (3) Discharge decreases by 12% from the present value, (4) Discharge decreases by 25% from the present value, and (5) No discharge occurs or recharge amount equals to the present discharge amount condition supplied to the aquifer. These scenario results suggest that seawater intrusion in the Selçuk sub-basin would progress in the following years unless proper management measures are taken into consideration. KEYWORDS: seawater intrusion, density dependent groundwater flow, solute transport, contamination, Selçuk sub-basin.M.S. - Master of Scienc