Temperature trends in the Balkans between 1961 and 2018 and an estimate of temperature changes in the period 2021–2100

V magistrskem delu smo proučevali trende temperatur na Balkanu za obdobje med letoma 1961 in 2100. Z obstoječo literaturo smo definirali območje Balkana, pojasnili pojem podnebnih sprememb in raziskali, kako se je podnebje tukaj spreminjalo v preteklosti ter kakšne so bile posledice. S podatki, pridobljenimi na spletni klimatološki podatkovni bazi, smo v programu QGIS kartografsko prikazali razlike, nastale v preteklosti in z upoštevanjem dveh podnebnih modelov predstavili predvidevanja za temperaturne spremembe do konca 21. stoletja. V programu ArcGis smo na podlagi preteklih temperaturnih sprememb in prihodnjih napovedi izračunali trende, ki so nam prikazali intenzivnost naraščanja temperatur po Balkanu. Ugotovili smo, da se večina regij na Balkanu segreva od leta 1961 in se bo segrevala v nadaljnje. Po scenariju SSP1-2.6 naj bi se naraščanje temperatur pričelo umirjati po letu 2080, na nekaterih predelih pa naj bi temperature celo nazadovale. Scenarij SSP3-7.0 z bolj pesimističnimi napovedmi predpostavlja visoko naraščanje temperatur vse do leta 2100. Najvišji skoki temperatur so bili in bodo v prihodnje zabeleženi v poletnih mesecih, medtem ko so najnižji porasti temperatur predvideni za jesenske mesece. Dosedanji in prihodnji trendi kažejo na višji porast temperatur v notranjosti Balkanskega polotoka, medtem ko naj bi se obalni predeli segrevali manj. Dolgoročno naj bi to privedlo do manjših temperaturnih razlik med obalnimi in kontinentalnimi deli Balkana.In the master \u27s thesis, we studied we studied the temperature trends in the Balkans for the period between 1961 and 2100. With the existing literature, we defined the area of the Balkans, explained the concept of climate change, and explored how the climate here has changed in the past and what the consequences have been. With the data obtained from the online climatological database, we mapped the differences in the past in the QGIS program and presented predictions for temperature changes by the end of the 21st century, considering two climate models. In the ArcGis program, we calculated trends based on past temperature changes and future forecasts, which showed us the intensity of rising temperatures in the Balkans. We have found that most regions in the Balkans have been warming since 1961 and will continue to do so. According to the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the rise in temperatures is expected to start to slow down after 2080, and in some areas, temperatures are even expected to fall. The SSP3-7.0 scenario with more pessimistic forecasts assumes high temperature rises until 2100. The highest temperature jumps have been and will be recorded in the summer months, while the lowest temperature rises are projected for the autumn months. Past and future trends point to a higher rise in temperatures in the interior of the Balkan Peninsula, while coastal areas are expected to heat up less. In the long run, this is expected to lead to smaller temperature differences between the coastal and continental parts of the Balkans