The relationship between the GDP growth and the financial development of countries in the European Union

Diplomsko delo obravnava povezanost med razvitostjo finančnega sistema in gospodarsko rastjo v državah Evropske Unije. Osrednji namen dela je bilo razumevanje povezave med razvitostjo finančnega sistema in gospodarsko rastjo na vzorcu 27 držav EU, dodatno pa preverjanje dejanske povezanost med razvitostjo finančnega sistema in gospodarsko rastjo na vzorcu držav EU. V uvodnih poglavjih smo vzpostavili pregled teorij o povezavi med finančnim sistemom in gospodarsko rastjo ter predstavili obstoječe študije izbranega področja. V empiričnem delu raziskave, smo za vsako državo EU analizirali gospodarsko rast, gospodarsko razvitost in kazalnike razvitosti finančnega sistema. Z izračunom korelacijskega koeficienta smo ugotavljali ali obstaja povezava med gospodarsko rastjo in gospodarsko razvitostjo s kazalniki finančne razvitosti. Kot kazalnik gospodarske rasti smo izbrali BDP rast, kot kazalnik gospodarske razvitosti pa BDP na prebivalca. Za kazalnike finančne razvitosti smo uporabili indeks finančne razvitosti, ki so ga razvili Sahay et al. (2015) in ga izračunava IMF (2021), likvidne obveznosti kot % BDP, borzno kapitalizacijo kot % BDP in domače kredite privatnemu sektorju kot % BDP. Ugotovili smo, da v EU kot celoti med gospodarsko rastjo in finančno razvitostjo obstaja pozitivna korelacija pri treh izmed štirih izbranih kazalnikih finančne razvitosti. Države smo razdelili v dve skupini, finančno bolj in finančno manj razvite in ugotavljali, ali med skupinama obstajajo razlike v jakosti povezave med spremenljivkami. Ugotovili smo, da je v finančno bolj razvitih državah povezava med gospodarsko rastjo in finančno razvitostjo pri treh kazalnikih finančne razvitosti višja, kot v finančno manj razvitih državah, pri enem kazalniku (domači krediti privatnemu sektorju kot % BDP) pa povezave nismo zaznali tako pri finančno bolj razvitih kot pri finančno manj razvitih. Nato smo izračune ponovili tudi za kazalnik gospodarske razvitosti, kjer smo zaznali pozitivno povezavo pri treh kazalnikih, pri enem pa ne. Pri izračunu korelacijskih koeficientov za finančno bolj in finančno manj razvite države smo ugotovili, da so trije od štirih koeficientov za finančno bolj razvite države pozitivni in višji od korelacijskih koeficientov za finančno manj razvite države. Le pri domačih kreditih privatnemu sektorju so finančno manj razvite države imele večji korelacijski koeficient kot finančno bolj razvite države.The diploma deals with the connection between the development of the financial system and economic growth in the countries of the European Union. The main purpose of the work was to understand the link between the development of the financial system and economic growth in a sample of 27 EU countries, and to further verify the actual relationship between the development of the financial system and economic growth in a sample of EU countries. In the introductory chapters, we overviewed of theories on the relationship between the financial system and economic growth and presented existing studies in the selected field. In the empirical part of the research, we analyzed economic growth, economic development and indicators of the development of the financial system for each EU country. By calculating the correlation coefficient, we determined whether there is a connection between economic growth and economic development with financial development indicators. We chose GDP growth as an indicator of economic growth, and GDP per capita as an indicator of economic development. For financial development indicators, we used the financial development index developed by Sahay et al. (2015). We found that in the EU as a whole, there is a positive correlation between economic growth and financial development in three of the four selected financial development indicators. The countries were then divided into two groups, more financially developed and less financially developed, in order to determine whether there were differences in the strength of the relationship between the variables between the two groups. We found that in financially more developed countries the link between economic growth and financial development is higher in three financial development indicators than in financially less developed countries, and in one indicator (domestic loans to the private sector as% of GDP) we did not find a link in financial more developed than the financially less developed. We then repeated the calculations for the economic development indicator, where we found a positive relationship in three indicators and not in one. When calculating the correlation coefficients for financially more and financially less developed countries, we found that three of the four coefficients for financially more developed countries are positive and higher than the correlation coefficients for financially less developed countries. Only in the case of domestic loans to the private sector did financially less developed countries have a higher correlation coefficient than financially more developed countries