Do macroeconomic imbalances still pose a problem?

Makroekonomska neravnovesja so področje, kjer se ugotavljajo makroekonomske razmere v evropskih državah na 14 področjih, ali so te države v čezmernem neravnovesju ali ravnovesju. V diplomskem delu bomo najprej predstavili povezavo s predhodnimi ekonomskimi misleci in kako so se že v preteklosti navezovali na iskanje in določanje neravnovesij. V prvem delu diplomskega dela smo zato prikazali najprej teorijo optimalnega valutnega območja ter značilnosti Ekonomske in monetarne unije z vsemi prednostmi in slabostmi evra. Podrobneje smo predstavili postopek makroekonomskih neravnovesij in kako se ta prepoznavajo ter odpravljajo, nato pa smo v drugem delu diplomskega dela vsakega izmed 14 kazalnikov makroekonomskih neravnovesij opisali. Na koncu smo analizirali kazalnike v Sloveniji in izpostavili tiste kazalnike, kjer so bila najbolj izstopajoča neravnovesja v naši državi v letih 2010, 2018 in 2019 ter na področju teh izstopajočih kazalnikov naredili primerjavo s tistimi evropskimi državami, ki so pri vsakem kazalniku v letu 2020 imele najboljše in najslabše vrednosti. Končne ugotovitve so bile, da v Sloveniji ni bilo opaziti pretiranih čezmernih neravnovesij, saj je izstopajočih kazalnikov bilo le 5. Najbolj izstopajoč kazalnik je bil javni dolg, ki se je od leta 2010 do 2015 močno povečal in se začel zniževati od leta 2015 do 2019, ko je znašal 65,6% BDP. V letu 2020 se je javni dolg spet začel povečevati, saj je k povečanju javnega dolga močno pripomogel tudi vpliv pandemije Covid-19. Javni dolg je leta 2020 presegal prag kazalnika za več kot 20 odstotnih točk BDP, kar je ogromno, a Slovenija še vedno ni na področju dolga med slabšimi evropskimi državami.Macroeconomic imbalances are an area where the macroeconomic situation in European countries is determined in 14 areas, whether these countries are in excessive imbalance. In the diploma work, we will first present the connection with previous evolution of economic thought and how the economic thinkers have been related to finding and determining imbalances in the past. In the first part of the diploma work, we therefore presented the theory of the optimal currency area and the characteristics of Economic and Monetary Union with all the advantages an disadvantages of the euro. We presented the process of macroeconomic imbalances in detail and how they are identified and eliminated, and then we described each of the 14 indicators of macroeconomic imbalances in the second part of the diploma work. In the end, we analyzed the indicators in Slovenia and highlighted those indicators where the most prominent imbalances were present in the years 2010, 2018 and 2019. We made a comparison with European countries, which indicators had the best and the worst values in 2020. The final disclosure showed, that no excessive imbalances were observed in Slovenia, as there were only 5 highlighted indicators. The most prominent indicator was public debt, which increased sharply from 2010 to 2015 and began to decline from 2015 to 2019, when it stood at 65% of GDP. Public debt began to increase again in 2020, as the Covid 19 pandemic contributed significantly to the increase of public debt. In 2020, public debt exceeded the threshold of the indicator by more than 20 p. p. of GDP, which is a lot, but Slovenia is still not in the field of debt among the poorer European countries