Projecting the theoretical niche of a recently re-discovered population of feral Asian water buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) in the North Rupununi wetlands, Guyana

We provide documentation of a population of feral domestic Asian water buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) that has persisted in the wetlands of the North Rupununi Region of Guyana for more than 75 years. Historical records indicate that water buffalo were incidentally introduced to the Rupununi by the colonial administration of British Guiana. Personal observations, camera trap photos, and reports of opportunistic encounters populate our maximum-entropy model, which projects a total of 2,489 km2 of suitable water buffalo habitat across the region, including 1,076 km2 of the RAMSAR-nominated North Rupununi wetlands (~11% of total land area). Key informants indicate that populations appear to have slowly increased and expanded their range over the past 30 years but fall far below projections using even the lowest population densities at ecologically analogous sites published in peer-reviewed literature. We discuss potential ecological impacts of water buffalo persistence and inhibitors of population growth by drawing on case studies from ecologically analogous locations