Liquefaction in Palu: the cause of massive mudflows

Abstract The 7.5 M w tectonic earthquake that hit Palu City on 28 September 2018 was followed by tsunami and liquefaction, triggered massive mudflows in Balaroa, Petobo, and Jono Oge areas. This study focuses on the generating factors of liquefaction such as the condition of soil lithology, depth of water table, the distance to the focal mechanism, and the thickness of soft sediment. Microtremor data, including the Horizontal Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR), geological condition, and borehole data, were examined to conduct the liquefaction analysis. The analysis results based on the microtremor data showed that the distribution of ground shear strain values in Palu City ranged from 0.75 × 10–4 to 2.56 × 10–4. The distribution of the locations of the liquefaction was correlated to the distribution of ground shear strain values. High ground shear strain values and a shallow groundwater level were discovered in Palu City valley, which indicates that liquefaction in Palu City will undoubtedly occur. The semi-empirical method confirmed that Balaroa, Petobo, and Jono Oge had undergone large-scale liquefaction at a maximum depth of 16 m below the ground level. The average peak of water runoff that generated the mudflow was estimated to be at 11.31 cm3/s. Since the soil has loose soil grain with high water content, the soil will turn into a massive amount of mud during the liquefaction