Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes in Dong Trieu District, Vietnam, during Past Two Decades and Their Driving Forces

Land-use and land-cover (LULC) change analyses are useful in understanding the changes in our living environments and their driving factors. Modeling changes of LULC in the future, together with the driving factors derived through analyzing the trends of past LULC changes, bring the opportunity to assess and orientate the current and future land-use policies. As the entryway of Quang Ninh province, Vietnam, Dong Trieu locale has experienced significant LULC changes during the past two decades. In this study, the spatial distribution of six Level I LULC classes, forest, cropland, orchards, waterbody, built-up, and barren land, in Dong Trieu district at 2000, 2010, and 2019 were obtained from Landsat imageries by maximum likelihood technique. The most significant changes observed over the past twenty years are a decrease of barren land (9.1%) and increases of built-up (8.1%) and orchards (6.8%). Driving factor analysis indicated that the changes of cropland and built-up were dependent on distance from road (DFR), distance from main road (DFMR), distance from urban (DFU), distance from water (DFW), elevation, slope, and population density. The changes of forest were dependent on all the driving forces listed above, except DFMR. The orchards mainly appeared near the high-population-density area. The transformation of the waterbody was affected by geography (elevation and slope) and population density. The higher the population density, the less barren the land would appear