Two-Way Floating or Irreversible Floating? The Transition of Migrants from Urban Social Integration to Permanent Settlement in the Cities in China

Oversized population mobility is an important feature of China’s urbanization. Every year, a large number of rural migrants move between urban and rural areas in China. However, the periodic mobility of rural migrants between urban and rural areas and between regions does not mean that migrants stop settling down in cities. In this study, using data from large sample surveys from the 2017 Chinese Migrants Dynamic Survey collected from eight cities in China, we analyse rural migrants’ urban settlement in China. Our findings reveal that 82.02% of rural migrant reported that they will stay in the city in the future and that residence duration dependence exists in the social integration and urban settlement of China’ rural migrants. That is, the longer rural migrants live in cities, the higher level of social integration and the more likely they are to settle in the city. Among the socio-economic factors, the influence of education on the social integration of rural migrants is greater than that of income. Social integration has a significant mediating effect on the floating duration and urban settlement intention, as well as education level and urban settlement intention. Further, the ownership of contracted land and homestead in rural areas (place of origin) are also important factors affecting the settlement of migrants in cities. For rural migrants to settle down in cities, contracted land acts as an economic support, and a homestead is a guarantee for the future. This study put forward that the mainstream of migration flow in China is the rural-urban one-way, irreversible flow from the countryside to the city and further proposes that the social policies should be based on encouraging migrants to improve social integration and increase the possibility of settling in cities. In future research, we should further consider the transformation of China’s urbanization stage. Settling in cities may become the “final choice” for most migrants and their family members. The social policies should help migrants and their family members get a better life and achieve upward social mobility in cities