Assessment of Interannual Variability of Moistening of Siberian Territory According to Observational Data

The article discusses the features of large-scale spatial and temporal variability of moistening (potential evapotranspiration, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration coefficient) in the Siberian part of Russia for the period 1981–2015. The All-Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information—World Data Center (RIHMI-WDC) archive has served as a source of initial information. Due to the rare network of stationary meteorological stations in most of Siberia, only 32 stations located mainly in the valleys of large rivers have been used for calculations. To estimate potential evapotranspiration, the modified method of M.I. Budyko has been used. A comprehensive delimitation of Siberia has been carried out by the interannual fluctuations of characteristics of moistening, being well divided into four regions, three of which encompass the basins of the largest rivers: the Ob, the Yenisei, the Lena and the fourth region represents the Baikal region. Analysis of the trends shows that the evapotranspiration in Siberia is growing only in the Ob basin and the Baikal region. Precipitation, excluding the Baikal region, is also increasing in the Yenisei and Lena basins. As for the potential evapotranspiration coefficient, a significant trend refers only to the Baikal region due to the rapid increase in evaporation. The modeling of the annual values of the characteristics of moistening for the selected regions has been carried out using the decision trees method. For 4-branch trees, the coefficient of determination R2 describes about two-thirds of the variance of the original variable (0.57–0.73). In the models of annual evapotranspiration values, the main predictor is the air temperature. In precipitation models, the contribution of local and external circulation factors to interannual precipitation fluctuations is equal