Middle age self‐report risk score predicts cognitive functioning and dementia in 20–40 years

Abstract Introduction On the basis of the proxy measures of cognitive reserve, we created a middle age self‐report risk score for early prediction of dementia. Methods We used a longitudinal population‐based study of 2602 individuals with a replication sample (N = 1011). Risk score at a mean age of 47 years was based on questions on educational and occupational attainments. Cognitive status at a mean age of 74 was determined via two validated telephone instruments. Results The prevalence of dementia was 10% after a mean follow‐up of 28 years. Risk score was a good predictor of dementia: area under the curve = 0.77 (95% confidence interval, 0.74–0.80). The risk of dementia decreased as a function of risk score from 36% to 0%. The risk score was significantly associated with cognition after a mean follow‐up of 39 years in the replication sample. Discussion Self‐report risk score predicted cognitive functioning and dementia risk 20–40 years later