Coevolutionary transitions emerging from flexible molecular recognition and eco-evolutionary feedback

Summary: Highly mutable viruses evolve to evade host immunity that exerts selective pressure and adapts to viral dynamics. Here, we provide a framework for identifying key determinants of the mode and fate of viral-immune coevolution by linking molecular recognition and eco-evolutionary dynamics. We find that conservation level and initial diversity of antigen jointly determine the timing and efficacy of narrow and broad antibody responses, which in turn control the transition between viral persistence, clearance, and rebound. In particular, clearance of structurally complex antigens relies on antibody evolution in a larger antigenic space than where selection directly acts; viral rebound manifests binding-mediated feedback between ecology and rapid evolution. Finally, immune compartmentalization can slow viral escape but also delay clearance. This work suggests that flexible molecular binding allows a plastic phenotype that exploits potentiating neutral variations outside direct contact, opening new and shorter paths toward highly adaptable states