A Review on the State of the Art in Scenario Modelling for Environmental Management : Potential for Application in achieving the Swedish Environmental Objectives

Environmental work has traditionally been focused on one theme and issue at a time; consequently one may not see the effects of decisions on other sectors or the environmental problems they cause. The sixteen Swedish Environmental Objectives are an example of this, with specific targets for the desired state for air, water, forests and oceans, etc. There has been little attention paid to integration or cross-cutting perspectives in the work of achieving the environmental objectives. The interplay between society and the environment is complex and therefore a systems perspective is needed whereby environmental targets and objectives can be transparently connected to policies and measures with interested parties and other interests involved. This means that some environmental objectives will have to be weighed against the goods involved and prioritized based on environmental, societal and economic concern. This places stronger demands on the state administration in its environmental work, and on the analyzes, methods and tools available to manage the data. This report is aimed at increasing knowledge about the methods and tools available for landscape management and points to where research and development is heading that may be useful for the authorities. The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and cannot be cited as representing the views of the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency. The study has been funded by the Swedish environmental Protection Agency´s Environmental Research Grant.