Techno-economic analysis of implementing energy efficiency measures in buildings sector in the framework of the European Green Deal

U ovome radu postavljena je hipoteza porasta maloprodajnih cijena električne energije za sektore kućanstava i uslužnih djelatnosti unutar Europske Unije, a time i Republike Hrvatske do 2030., odnosno 2050. godine. Kako ne bi došlo do povećanja stvarnih izdataka za energiju unutar spomenutih sektora, provela se analiza isplativosti mjera energetske učinkovitosti, a koje će troškove održavati jednakima ili manjima u usporedbi s početnom godinom analize, usput smanjujući stvarnu potrošnju energije. Provedene su modelacije energetskih potreba spomenutih sektora do 2030. i 2050. godine za slučaj Republike Hrvatske u računalnom programu LEAP. Modelacije su provedene s obzirom na tri scenarija energetske tranzicije (referentni, scenarij umjerene te intenzivne energetske tranzicije). Na temelju provedenih modelacija i referirajući se na scenarij intenzivne energetske tranzicije izrađena je tehno-ekonomska analiza provedbe mjera energetske učinkovitosti. U tu svrhu korištena je metoda jednostavnog perioda povrata investicije, koja je najčešća iz perspektive mjera energetske učinkovitosti u kućanstvima, a obzirom da se analiza radi iz perspektive krajnjeg korisnika, ova metoda je najlakša za razumijevanje i usporedbu. Naposlijetku, prikazani su mogući modeli financiranja provedbe energetske učinkovitosti za kućanstva, višestambene zgrade te zgrade uslužnog sektora.This paper hypothesizes an increase in retail electricity prices for the household and service sectors within the European Union, and thus the Republic of Croatia until 2030 and 2050, respectively. In order not to increase the actual energy expenditure within the mentioned sectors, an analysis of the cost-effectiveness of energy efficiency measures was conducted, which will keep the costs equal or lower compared to the initial year of the analysis, while reducing actual energy consumption. Modeling of energy needs of the mentioned sectors was performed in the computer program LEAP until 2030 and 2050 for the case of the Republic of Croatia. The simulations were performed with respect to three energy transition scenarios (reference, moderate and intensive energy transition scenario). Based on the implemented modeling and referring to the scenario of intensive energy transition, a techno-economic analysis of the implementation of energy efficiency measures was made. For this purpose, the method of simple payback period was used, which is most common from the perspective of energy efficiency measures in households, and since the analysis is done from the perspective of the end user, this method is the easiest to understand and compare. Finally, possible models for financing energy efficiency implementation for households, apartment buildings and service sector buildings are presented