The Application of Simple Additive Bayesian Allocation Network Process in System Obsolescence

In designing a system, multi-dimensional obsolescence design criteria such as Scheduling; Reliability, Availability, Maintainability; Performance and Functionality; and Costs affect its overall lifespan. This work examines the impacts of these factors on systems during the design phase using a new application called the Simple Additive Bayesian Allocation Network Process (SABANP). The application uses a combination of Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methodology and a Bayesian Belief Network to address the impact of obsolescence on a system. Unlike the requirement of weights that are prevalent in the analysis of MCDM, this application does not require weights. Moreover, this application accounts for functional dependencies of criteria, which is not possible with the MCDM methodologies. A case study was conducted using military and civilian experts. Data were collected on systems’ obsolescence criteria and analyzed using the application to make trade-off decisions. The results show that the application can address complex obsolescence decisions that are both quantitative and qualitative. Expert validation showed that SABANP successfully identified the best system for mitigating obsolescence