Agricultural expansion and the ecological marginalization of forest-dependent people

Agricultural expansion into subtropical and tropical forests causes major environmental damage, but its wider social impacts often remain hidden. Forest-dependent smallholders are particularly strongly impacted, as they crucially rely on forest resources, are typically poor, and often lack institutional support. Our goal was to assess forest-smallholder dynamics in relation to expanding commodity agriculture. Using high-resolution satellite images across the entire South American Gran Chaco, a global deforestation hotspot, we digitize individual forest-smallholder homesteads (n = 23,954) and track their dynamics between 1985 and 2015. Using a Bayesian model, we estimate 28,125 homesteads in 1985 and show that forest smallholders occupy much larger forest areas (>45% of all Chaco forests) than commonly appreciated and increasingly come into conflict with expanding commodity agriculture (18% of homesteads disappeared; n = 5,053). Importantly, we demonstrate an increasing ecological marginalization of forest smallholders, including a substantial forest resource base loss in all Chaco countries and an increasing confinement to drier regions (Argentina and Bolivia) and less accessible regions (Bolivia). Our transferable and scalable methodology puts forest smallholders on the map and can help to uncover the land-use conflicts at play in many deforestation frontiers across the globe. Such knowledge is essential to inform policies aimed at sustainable land use and supply chains.Instituto de Investigación Animal del Chaco SemiáridoFil: Levers, Christian. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; AlemaniaFil: Levers, Christian. University of British Columbia. Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability; CanadáFil: Levers, Christian. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. Department of Environmental Geography. Institute for Environmental Studies; Países BajosFil: Romero Muñoz, Alfredo. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; AlemaniaFil: Baumann, Matthias. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; AlemaniaFil: De Marzo, Teresa. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; AlemaniaFil: Fernandez, Pedro David. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Investigación Animal del Chaco Semiárido; ArgentinaFil: Fernandez, Pedro David. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Ecología Regional; ArgentinaFil: Gasparri, Nestor Ignacio. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Ecología Regional; ArgentinaFil: Gavier Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Recursos Biológicos; ArgentinaFil: de Waroux, Yann le Polain. McGill University. Institute for the Study of International Development. Department of Geography; CanadáFil: Piquer Rodríguez, María. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; AlemaniaFil: Piquer Rodríguez, María. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Ecología Regional; ArgentinaFil: Piquer Rodríguez, María. Freie Univeristät Berlin. Latinamerika-Institut; AlemaniaFil: Semper Pascual, Asunción. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; AlemaniaFil: Semper Pascual, Asunción. Norwegian University of Life Sciences. Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management; NoruegaFil: Kuemmerle, Tobias. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; AlemaniaFil: Kuemmerle, Tobias. Humboldt-University Berlin. Integrative Research Institute on Transformations in Human-Environment Systems; Alemani