In the face of uncertainty : The effects of presenting increased degrees of imprecise probabilities in risk descriptions in time critical decision-making situations

Effective C2 requires the ability to cope with uncertainty and to make timely decisions in situations often characterised by risk. This experimental study, with 56 participants, investigated how decision-makers handled these problems in a fictive time critical situation. More specifically, the study examined the effects of presenting two different degrees of uncertainty (low/high) on the choice to make a direct decision or to wait for additional information, in order to test if increased degrees of uncertainty lead to more people waiting for information and to longer waiting times. The overall purpose was to contribute to the debate regarding how uncertainty should be communicated to decision-makers, and to our knowledge concerning the practical consequences of presenting uncertainty to decision-makers in time critical situations. The study could not demonstrate any effect of increased degrees of uncertainty on the choice to make a direct decision or to wait for additional information. Neither could the study demonstrate any effect on the waiting time. However, the results show that almost all of the participants in both the experimental and the control group decided to wait for additional information, and that most of them showed little restraint regarding their waiting time. These results strengthen the conclusion from a previous study by Rydmark, Kuylenstierna, and Tehler (2020) - that presenting uncertainty in risk descriptions can be a practical problem in time critical decision-making situations, and that educating decision-makers in handing these problems may be required if uncertainty is to be presented in these kinds of situations