Trends in arms trade since the end of the Cold War : a comparison of Czech and Swedish arms exports in the years 1993-2012

The Czech Republic and Sweden have historically been prominent producers and exporters of arms. The end of the Cold War has, however, changed the global patterns of arms trade. The aim of this thesis is to compare the trends in arms exports of the two countries in the years 1993-2012. The method involves a combination of a quantitative analysis aimed at examining how arms exports correlate to national product and military expenditure, and a qualitative analysis for an in-depth examination of the different sectors that the exports were composed of. The results show weak or non-existent correlations between the arms exports and the mentioned macroeconomic variables, with a general upward-pointing trend for Sweden and a general downward-pointing trend for the Czech Republic. Analysis by sector suggests that the Czech defense industry suffered greatly from the turbulent period that followed the end of the Cold War, thus also negatively affecting the country’s exports. The Swedish defense industry has not been affected to the same extent and the exports seem actually to have benefitted from reductions in the size of the armed forces. The fact that the export trends have been very volatile and do not show much correlation to economic variables suggests a certain degree of unpredictability, both due to external events and to the inconsistency of defense policy